Resumen: Los metales preciosos son una inversión segura y rentable a medio y largo plazo. Protegen contra los riesgos de inflación y / o colapso del sistema financiero internacional. El precio del oro, la plata y otros metales preciosos lo protegen contra las crisis.
Una inversión segura y rentable.
A diferencia de los bonos gubernamentales o corporativos, los metales preciosos no tienen riesgo de contraparte porque ni el oro ni la plata pueden quebrar; Constituyen un valor que ha sido inmutable durante miles de años.
A diferencia de los billetes, los metales preciosos no se ven afectados por la inflación ni por ningún tipo de reforma monetaria. Un kilogramo de oro siempre seguirá siendo un kilogramo con su valor intrínseco, mientras que "el papel moneda eventualmente regresa a su valor intrínseco: cero" (Voltaire). Los estudios históricos de todos los países en todos los períodos muestran que el papel moneda sigue siendo multiplicable a voluntad de los políticos, y pierde rápidamente su poder adquisitivo. Durante la Revolución Francesa (1789 - 1799), que había confiado en el papel moneda perdió 1000: 1 (René Sédillot: El costo de la Revolución Francesa, 1989).
Desde el otoño de 2008, más inversionistas y más sumas están siendo invertidas en metales preciosos. Esta tendencia se reforzará en los próximos años, ya que hay razón para tener miedo - la inestabilidad del sistema financiero internacional y la inflación - se mantendrá o llegar a ser aún mayor debido a la creciente endeudamiento.
El colapso del sistema monetario es sólo una cuestión de tiempo, debido al desgaste producto del endeudamiento y sobreendeudamiento, y el aumento del valor multiplicado por los bancos. El aumento de la deuda se produce inevitablemente por los intereses y el "interés compuesto" (= interés compuesto, que son las deudas crecen más rápidamente). Como estas deudas generan interés, lo que a su vez generan interés compuesto, y así sucesivamente, el endeudamiento de los particulares, empresas y estados crece exponencialmente. Esta aceleración del aumento de la deuda llevará a los deudores a la bancarrota. Como se muestra así que la película "El dinero-deuda", el papel moneda no es más que un reconocimiento de deuda, ya sea en forma de billete de banco u obligación, y dado que este producto de la deuda de interés compuesto crece cada vez más fuerte, hay inevitablemente llegará un momento en que la deuda dará lugar a la quiebra de las naciones. Por eso es matemáticamente seguro que el sistema de papel moneda, basado en deudas, colapsará.
Esto ha sucedido docenas de veces en el pasado. Los bonos del gobierno llevan el riesgo de impago. Kenneth Rogoff (Esta vez es diferente ocho siglos de locura financiera, 2010) estudió cientos de crisis financieras en 66 países durante ocho siglos: bancarrotas estatales son comunes.
Además, los préstamos pierden su valor debido a la inflación: desde el siglo XV ha habido 609 monedas retiradas de la circulación, 153 de las cuales fueron destruidas por la hiperinflación. Mantener billetes o bonos es equivalente a un suicidio financiero.
The gold rate will rise
The price of gold will go up, because supply (mining production and destocking of central banks) decreases, while demand of investors is becoming more urgent.
Production of gold : gold extraction has been regularly decreasing for some years, because many mines are running out. Exploring new reserves and opening a mine takes a long time and much money (2 to 5 years from the discovery of a gold deposit to beginning of mining operations).
Destocking of central banks : central banks of the large Western industrialized countries have sold enormous gold stocks on the market since the end of convertibility of money into gold in 1971. This is why there was pressure to hold the prices low until 1999, when the main countries that still had gold signed an agreement to limit these sales to 500 tons of gold a year. In 1945, 68% of gold in the world was kept by central banks ; 20% in 2003 ; the current reserves are close to 0%, even if official statistics claim the opposite. So central banks cannot make gold rate fall by additional sales.
Even more positive, a new trend has developed these last years among certain developing countries (China, India, Russia, Argentina,…), which are increasing their central banks’ gold stocks, because they distrust the dollar.
Demand of investors : the third argument which speaks for the gold-price rise is the small (6 trillion $) amount of the gold supply compared with the quantity of dollars which are invested in the stock (40 trillion) and bond markets (100 trillion). In case of a market crash, the capital which would flee stocks and bonds could not enter the gold market without causing an amazing increase of the price of gold and even more of the price of silver, whose market is tiny (0,02 trillion). Currently, 4% of world assets are invested in gold and silver ; if 30% were reached (a percentage that has already been seen in 1980!), the price of precious metals would be multiplied by 7.
The silver rate will rise sharply
There are at least ten reasons which, combined together, will cause a strong rise in the silver rate.
1. The silver mines will be exhausted within approximately fifteen years (2020/2030).
2. World stocks fell from 10 billion ounces in 1950 to 1 billion in 2010. If this trend continues (and there is no reason why it should go the other way), there will be no more reserves at all in a few years.
3. New industrial or medical applications, which use silver, are created. In every car, every computer, every cell phone, every solar panel, there is silver.
4. The silver that is used by industry is generally not recycled at all.
5. Toward the middle of the 1960’s, the USA and European countries withdrew silver coins from circulation. These coins were melted down and converted into ingots for investors. Silverware was also melted down and transformed into ingots. Since less and less coins and cutlery to be melted remain, this kind of recycling gradually decreases.
6. Silver is five times rarer than gold. There are 4983 million ounces of gold in stock, but only 965 million ounces of silver.
7. The ratio gold/silver is currently (summer 2010) at 1/65 (1 gold ingot has the same value as 65 silver ingots), whereas silver is rarer than gold and the traditional average was about 1/15. The current ratio will sink to the normal average, i.e. compared to gold, silver’s value will rise.
8. At the peak of the previous rise of precious metals (1980), gold reached its highest point at 850 $ an ounce and silver at 50 $. The current gold rate is higher than that of 1980, but the current rate of silver is lower than that of 1980, therefore there is a broad capacity of correction before we may speak of a « bubble ».
Moreover, if we consider the monetary erosion of the dollar (inflation of paper money), we must multiply the nominal price of 1980 by seven to have the equivalent purchasing power of 2010. 50 $ x 7 = 350 $. The current rate of silver has not reached this level at all.
9. The raw material stock exchange COMEX in New York is unable to deliver the entire futures, because its silver and gold stocks represent only a small part of the total volume of transactions. As long as the speculators are satisfied with getting their benefits paid in dollars, the « fractional metal reserve » may be sufficient, but if too many people at the same time suddenly require the physical delivery of metal, this stock exchange will go bankrupt, because there is simply not enough gold an silver supply for all. This fractional reserve system is also practiced by some ETF (exchange-traded funds).
One US bank alone sells « short » (i.e. without having the metal in stock at all) a third of the yearly worldwide production of silver.
The same ingot is sold short 50 times on paper. This manipulation will fail the day the salesmen of paper certificates won’t be able to satisfy the demand of physical delivery – their « fractional reserve » will have become insufficient, because the really available world reserves will have run out.
10. When everyone wants to buy the same product, its value is overpriced. On the other hand when few investors are interested, it is possible to get it at a low price. However silver is an unknown and therefore undervalued investment. Compared to the whole population, only some rare and aware people hoard silver. Therefore the value of silver is largely underestimated. The whole of all world reserves (1 billion ounces) is hardly worth 20 billion dollars ; the bond market is worth 100 000 billion and the stock market is worth 40 000 billion ; if only 1% of the sums that are invested in bonds were invested in silver, its price would be multiplied by 50. If we took 10% of bonds and of stocks, the price would be multiplied 700-fold.
11. The ten previous arguments are all the more strong since they can be added to one another. The ten bullish factors will simultaneously be felt, which will multiply by ten the impact on the price. The scenario looks like this : played-out mines and no more old coins nor cutlery to be recycled ; world stocks that have fallen to zero ; industrialists hopelessly looking for the raw material that is essential for their production ; panic of short sellers, who have to buy at any price to be able to deliver the physical metal ; investors who are rushing to this investment everyone is talking about ; savers that are seeking refuge in a sure value, because the world financial system is collapsing under their terror-stricken eyes and because the bank counter remains closed.
Conclusion
Precious metals are a sure and very profitable investment. Gold is good, but silver is even better.
Euporos Ltd offers you faultless quality (new ingots, scratch-less coins). The goods are brought to your home by insured safe transport, or, if you prefer, we store them for you in a discreet way in a safe place in Switzerland, in a VAT-exempt « free port ».
